* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 09/23/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 39 43 51 58 67 70 75 80 81 77 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 33 36 45 52 60 64 69 73 74 70 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 35 37 41 45 49 52 56 59 59 57 SHEAR (KTS) 13 12 13 17 13 13 13 13 14 17 26 25 34 SHEAR DIR 261 249 249 265 279 220 253 246 276 255 264 250 262 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.2 27.1 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 151 151 149 144 139 140 144 148 141 129 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 137 136 134 129 125 126 129 131 125 117 110 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -53.3 -53.7 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 4 700-500 MB RH 57 57 54 56 57 56 51 50 47 51 50 50 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 14 15 15 17 18 21 21 23 27 28 27 850 MB ENV VOR 30 46 44 42 51 68 49 55 15 25 4 28 2 200 MB DIV 31 42 23 33 27 33 50 41 64 50 63 30 24 LAND (KM) -11 -37 -20 5 33 157 319 544 757 937 849 927 802 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.9 20.1 21.2 22.7 24.7 26.6 28.9 31.3 34.1 37.1 LONG(DEG W) 69.8 70.3 70.8 71.3 71.7 72.0 71.9 71.2 70.5 69.4 68.2 65.9 61.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 7 9 10 11 13 15 21 24 HEAT CONTENT 0 9999 9999 5 22 54 30 33 25 30 14 9 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 11. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 21. 29. 37. 42. 47. 52. 53. 49. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 9. 13. 21. 29. 37. 40. 45. 50. 51. 47. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 09/23/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 09/23/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY