* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL932008 09/23/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 42 47 55 61 66 69 71 72 74 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 32 37 42 50 56 61 64 66 67 69 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 31 33 36 40 43 47 52 56 59 60 SHEAR (KTS) 15 14 13 14 9 16 10 14 3 8 5 18 24 SHEAR DIR 267 260 264 269 255 258 234 276 297 288 156 220 227 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 151 149 144 139 139 141 144 146 144 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 136 137 136 134 130 124 123 123 124 126 124 114 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -53.2 -53.2 -53.7 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 12 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 58 58 56 58 60 54 56 51 54 42 42 41 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 12 15 13 14 15 16 14 15 18 22 850 MB ENV VOR 52 52 45 41 57 42 24 2 -1 -9 -94 -94 -79 200 MB DIV 34 8 18 22 45 29 55 32 32 32 15 -8 1 LAND (KM) -39 -58 -41 6 55 191 360 532 702 849 973 843 765 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.2 19.4 19.9 20.3 21.5 23.0 24.5 26.0 27.3 28.7 30.5 32.7 LONG(DEG W) 70.0 70.4 70.7 70.9 71.1 70.7 70.4 69.7 69.3 69.0 69.1 69.0 68.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 0 42 54 39 44 36 32 31 18 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 18. 22. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 3. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 25. 31. 36. 39. 41. 42. 44. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 25. 31. 36. 39. 41. 42. 44. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 09/23/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :3347.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 09/23/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY