* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 09/24/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 43 48 55 59 65 67 68 67 68 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 36 39 44 51 55 61 63 64 63 63 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 33 34 38 42 46 50 55 59 58 55 SHEAR (KTS) 14 16 10 9 14 8 13 8 8 11 15 20 29 SHEAR DIR 252 259 262 248 234 269 240 281 252 283 250 252 256 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.4 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.4 27.6 26.6 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 154 153 152 149 142 140 144 147 143 133 122 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 139 139 138 136 129 126 128 130 125 116 105 101 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.6 -53.9 -54.9 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 5 3 700-500 MB RH 59 60 59 60 57 60 59 53 51 44 41 50 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 11 12 12 10 12 10 12 11 12 13 17 850 MB ENV VOR 58 54 56 63 57 31 38 -5 14 -35 -67 -93 -90 200 MB DIV 9 5 29 42 17 47 51 51 39 29 24 40 20 LAND (KM) -2 -34 -11 26 94 284 510 732 978 917 879 839 719 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.9 20.5 22.2 24.2 26.2 28.4 30.5 33.1 35.6 37.6 LONG(DEG W) 69.6 69.7 69.8 69.7 69.6 69.3 68.9 68.7 68.4 68.0 66.8 64.7 62.0 STM SPEED (KT) 0 4 5 7 8 9 10 11 11 12 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 93 9999 0 53 58 43 44 38 30 18 11 11 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):190/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 16. 24. 29. 36. 40. 41. 40. 40. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 18. 25. 29. 35. 37. 38. 37. 38. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 09/24/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 09/24/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY