* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902008 09/24/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 34 34 31 25 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 34 34 31 25 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 26 25 24 23 19 16 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 21 15 8 3 10 6 10 14 23 29 34 43 49 SHEAR DIR 107 128 118 90 94 152 167 176 188 224 217 216 219 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.4 25.9 25.3 24.3 22.9 21.6 20.7 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 139 136 132 127 122 116 106 91 77 69 64 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 59 58 54 55 56 50 50 45 40 39 37 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 36 23 18 20 9 4 0 9 -11 -21 -39 -47 200 MB DIV 7 16 13 9 0 0 -24 -14 0 0 23 26 25 LAND (KM) 566 617 643 617 613 683 746 855 930 910 820 667 441 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.9 19.6 20.1 21.2 22.6 24.4 26.2 28.1 LONG(DEG W) 109.3 110.2 111.1 112.1 113.1 115.0 116.9 118.9 120.7 122.0 122.3 121.5 119.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 10 9 10 10 9 9 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 11. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. 0. -5. -10. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 7. 2. -6. -15. -24. -33. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 6. 0. -7. -14. -23. -32. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP902008 INVEST 09/24/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902008 INVEST 09/24/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY