* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 09/24/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 43 48 55 58 59 60 63 60 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 43 48 55 58 59 60 63 60 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 32 34 36 39 42 44 44 43 40 SHEAR (KTS) 15 16 22 24 14 13 8 15 18 29 34 36 35 SHEAR DIR 269 235 233 248 254 230 248 231 224 222 226 235 242 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.0 27.0 26.2 22.6 18.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 141 139 138 141 146 147 138 126 119 93 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 132 127 124 124 126 129 129 120 110 105 84 73 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.7 -54.2 -55.2 -55.1 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 3 2 0 700-500 MB RH 62 64 61 59 58 56 53 52 52 51 52 50 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR 44 55 63 50 42 57 32 13 -24 -9 -1 11 40 200 MB DIV 27 50 35 32 45 28 45 72 76 73 81 100 30 LAND (KM) 86 162 239 327 416 638 859 834 680 659 574 425 384 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.2 21.9 22.7 23.5 25.5 27.5 29.6 32.0 34.8 37.6 40.5 42.9 LONG(DEG W) 70.1 70.2 70.3 70.3 70.3 70.2 70.2 70.1 69.8 68.7 66.3 62.3 57.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 13 16 19 21 21 HEAT CONTENT 68 59 50 41 40 34 22 23 17 16 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 4. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 8. 13. 19. 25. 29. 30. 31. 34. 32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 18. 25. 28. 29. 30. 33. 30. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 09/24/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 09/24/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY