* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 09/24/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 60 63 65 65 62 59 56 50 46 39 V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 60 63 65 44 32 28 27 27 28 29 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 62 63 64 65 45 32 28 27 27 28 32 SHEAR (KTS) 30 32 37 37 37 37 27 28 13 24 35 46 47 SHEAR DIR 240 233 240 250 235 212 200 206 234 222 216 222 235 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.5 25.5 24.4 24.0 24.0 22.4 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 142 144 144 142 140 129 108 98 95 98 91 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 118 119 119 117 116 107 91 81 80 84 81 79 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.2 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -54.2 -55.3 -56.1 -56.5 -56.5 -56.4 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 5 4 2 0 2 0 1 0 4 1 5 2 700-500 MB RH 43 37 36 35 39 35 37 36 38 33 34 34 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 16 17 17 20 19 17 13 10 8 6 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 77 89 99 141 138 138 81 56 46 49 32 -15 200 MB DIV 18 36 30 25 44 69 35 37 25 -8 -12 -3 16 LAND (KM) 344 315 272 225 184 61 -104 -275 -401 -436 -401 -179 107 LAT (DEG N) 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.2 32.3 32.9 34.0 35.2 36.1 36.7 37.3 38.4 39.7 LONG(DEG W) 74.9 75.6 76.3 77.0 77.7 78.8 80.1 81.4 82.3 82.1 80.5 77.4 72.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 4 5 10 16 19 HEAT CONTENT 27 34 43 48 37 5 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -7. -10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 12. 14. 13. 9. 5. 1. -4. -9. -14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 10. 7. 4. 1. -5. -9. -16. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 09/24/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 09/24/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY