* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP962008 09/24/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 33 39 52 60 68 72 74 74 72 71 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 33 39 52 60 68 72 74 74 72 71 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 25 28 33 38 43 47 49 51 SHEAR (KTS) 2 6 11 10 4 2 9 2 6 9 18 20 16 SHEAR DIR 6 35 91 90 107 148 315 13 247 183 184 177 161 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 147 145 143 140 137 136 135 134 133 134 134 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -52.4 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 64 63 63 65 67 65 63 59 64 62 61 53 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 5 7 9 10 12 11 11 11 11 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -2 5 15 32 44 57 67 57 50 31 34 24 23 200 MB DIV 56 40 29 28 35 33 40 48 39 48 31 -14 -15 LAND (KM) 1216 1224 1243 1264 1289 1315 1343 1335 1285 1205 1125 1095 1092 LAT (DEG N) 8.7 9.1 9.4 9.7 9.9 10.4 10.8 11.4 12.2 13.2 14.1 14.8 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 159.7 160.7 161.7 162.5 163.2 164.2 165.0 165.8 166.3 166.5 166.5 166.9 167.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 9 8 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 746 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 10. 12. 12. 11. 10. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 9. 15. 27. 35. 44. 50. 53. 52. 49. 48. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 13. 19. 32. 40. 48. 52. 54. 54. 52. 51. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP962008 INVEST 09/24/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962008 INVEST 09/24/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED