* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 09/24/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 37 40 47 52 55 58 58 52 48 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 37 40 47 52 55 58 58 52 48 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 31 33 35 38 40 40 38 36 35 SHEAR (KTS) 18 23 23 15 12 16 5 23 29 43 46 33 32 SHEAR DIR 242 225 244 242 228 245 220 227 225 237 257 257 222 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.5 28.7 28.2 27.0 25.7 20.5 15.8 14.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 142 140 138 138 144 148 142 127 115 84 72 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 127 126 125 124 130 132 126 113 102 77 68 67 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -53.0 -53.2 -54.6 -55.7 -56.8 -57.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 10 8 7 5 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 58 58 57 57 48 52 50 50 48 52 60 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 12 13 12 13 16 18 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 53 61 52 48 45 34 45 -5 24 10 22 20 45 200 MB DIV 32 19 39 38 46 35 70 52 87 71 12 19 60 LAND (KM) 136 208 279 384 489 723 881 721 685 570 380 255 16 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.7 22.3 23.3 24.2 26.3 28.8 31.6 34.9 38.2 41.4 44.3 46.9 LONG(DEG W) 70.6 70.7 70.7 70.8 70.8 70.6 70.4 69.6 68.4 65.5 61.7 57.7 55.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 10 10 12 13 16 18 21 21 18 16 HEAT CONTENT 63 53 43 37 38 27 21 17 16 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 784 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 20. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. 1. 0. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. 2. 3. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 18. 23. 26. 28. 28. 23. 20. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 22. 25. 28. 28. 22. 18. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 09/24/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 09/24/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY