* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 09/24/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 58 60 61 63 63 59 56 52 46 40 32 V (KT) LAND 55 56 58 60 61 63 38 30 28 27 28 28 20 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 59 60 60 62 38 30 28 27 28 31 30 SHEAR (KTS) 31 31 32 31 30 29 21 20 28 35 48 63 64 SHEAR DIR 231 240 244 233 217 211 198 234 220 231 235 252 265 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.1 26.8 25.2 24.6 24.5 23.5 23.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 142 144 144 142 137 121 104 99 100 95 97 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 118 119 119 118 114 100 86 83 85 83 85 99 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -53.6 -53.7 -54.4 -55.2 -55.6 -56.1 -56.2 -56.0 -56.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 1 4 2 4 700-500 MB RH 43 39 38 43 40 38 36 35 37 36 32 31 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 19 21 20 18 16 11 9 8 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 92 90 102 148 148 130 144 98 58 36 18 -24 -49 200 MB DIV 38 38 37 48 62 53 30 17 19 4 -14 -19 -20 LAND (KM) 371 322 272 209 152 13 -156 -291 -351 -346 -160 94 408 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 31.8 31.9 32.3 32.6 33.6 34.7 35.6 36.3 37.0 37.6 37.9 37.7 LONG(DEG W) 75.0 75.8 76.5 77.2 77.8 78.9 80.2 81.2 81.2 79.9 77.6 74.2 69.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 7 6 7 7 4 4 8 12 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 25 35 45 46 30 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 6. 2. -3. -8. -14. -21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 4. 1. -3. -8. -15. -23. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 09/24/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 09/24/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY