* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 09/25/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 37 42 48 52 56 57 58 56 55 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 37 42 48 52 56 57 58 56 55 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 31 31 34 37 39 40 38 36 36 SHEAR (KTS) 25 28 20 14 18 10 16 24 38 41 38 29 21 SHEAR DIR 229 243 240 237 235 254 223 241 235 238 264 250 234 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.5 28.7 28.2 27.0 25.7 21.9 18.0 14.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 141 139 138 138 144 148 141 128 115 90 75 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 127 125 124 123 129 132 126 114 104 82 70 65 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.5 -52.9 -53.6 -54.1 -55.5 -55.9 -56.8 -57.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 10 11 9 8 7 6 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 57 57 57 52 54 52 49 45 52 57 53 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 15 17 16 19 850 MB ENV VOR 50 41 35 37 36 26 30 11 32 27 -7 37 60 200 MB DIV 16 41 35 46 30 66 48 64 60 41 59 25 12 LAND (KM) 159 235 311 416 522 744 866 706 713 580 452 378 190 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.9 22.6 23.6 24.5 26.5 28.9 31.6 34.8 38.3 41.3 43.4 45.0 LONG(DEG W) 70.5 70.7 70.9 70.9 70.9 70.9 70.5 69.8 68.1 64.8 59.6 55.1 52.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 9 9 9 11 13 15 20 23 22 15 12 HEAT CONTENT 60 49 39 36 37 26 21 17 15 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 20. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 19. 23. 26. 27. 28. 26. 27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 5. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 27. 28. 26. 25. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 09/25/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 09/25/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY