* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 09/25/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 58 59 62 60 58 56 51 45 39 30 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 58 59 45 33 29 28 28 31 25 16 V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 56 57 58 45 32 28 27 28 28 32 31 SHEAR (KTS) 27 30 26 26 30 20 23 18 29 40 56 63 68 SHEAR DIR 248 243 239 219 208 200 217 243 231 231 243 254 265 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.4 27.5 25.8 24.6 24.3 23.3 21.8 21.4 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 142 144 143 141 129 110 99 99 94 88 87 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 118 119 119 118 108 92 83 84 82 79 79 82 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.4 -53.9 -54.6 -55.1 -55.8 -56.1 -56.2 -56.0 -55.9 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 0 3 1 0 1 0 2 0 4 1 2 700-500 MB RH 45 43 48 45 43 43 42 41 38 41 38 38 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 20 21 20 19 15 12 8 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 93 93 141 142 134 144 119 101 59 57 10 -48 -46 200 MB DIV 26 30 67 77 65 45 25 25 5 3 12 12 -21 LAND (KM) 360 297 238 165 94 -76 -239 -353 -391 -234 2 202 411 LAT (DEG N) 31.6 31.9 32.1 32.6 33.1 34.3 35.4 36.2 37.0 38.0 39.1 39.8 39.8 LONG(DEG W) 75.4 76.1 76.8 77.4 78.0 79.4 80.6 81.4 80.5 78.3 74.9 70.2 65.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 7 8 8 6 4 8 12 16 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 28 40 47 38 11 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -18. -20. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 5. 1. -5. -10. -16. -23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 5. 3. 1. -4. -10. -16. -25. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 09/25/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 09/25/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY