* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP962008 09/25/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 30 35 41 46 50 54 57 58 59 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 30 35 41 46 50 54 57 58 59 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 23 25 27 28 28 26 SHEAR (KTS) 25 22 26 25 22 12 12 10 13 19 25 33 33 SHEAR DIR 74 92 79 88 91 96 77 79 92 122 133 126 118 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 149 148 148 147 146 144 143 141 140 140 140 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.0 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 65 65 64 60 65 60 67 66 66 62 61 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 39 44 48 45 58 47 32 15 -6 -29 -39 -57 200 MB DIV 70 73 80 47 45 31 37 37 39 23 10 0 -7 LAND (KM) 1433 1484 1539 1579 1621 1684 1726 1703 1661 1616 1592 1607 1691 LAT (DEG N) 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.9 8.2 8.6 9.2 9.8 10.4 10.9 11.2 LONG(DEG W) 162.0 163.0 164.0 164.7 165.4 166.4 167.3 167.6 167.9 168.1 168.6 169.5 171.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 8 7 6 5 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 21. 26. 30. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 35. 36. 36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 21. 26. 30. 35. 37. 38. 39. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP962008 INVEST 09/25/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962008 INVEST 09/25/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY