* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 09/25/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 41 49 55 63 69 66 61 55 51 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 38 41 49 55 63 69 66 61 48 40 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 34 36 38 40 39 36 36 35 SHEAR (KTS) 27 22 16 19 19 13 21 27 43 48 36 26 46 SHEAR DIR 260 263 243 249 251 222 223 233 248 255 259 238 223 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.0 26.9 25.6 20.4 15.4 14.4 11.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 140 141 145 148 139 126 114 84 72 70 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 127 127 130 132 123 112 100 76 68 67 65 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -53.1 -53.2 -54.0 -55.3 -57.1 -58.1 -58.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 8 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 60 60 57 53 59 56 57 57 59 62 60 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 14 16 16 17 16 20 25 23 19 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 48 47 62 50 27 40 3 26 17 30 61 60 35 200 MB DIV 37 50 89 49 72 125 64 115 71 39 48 64 46 LAND (KM) 273 396 521 642 764 894 749 754 570 381 194 -18 118 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 23.3 24.4 25.5 26.6 29.1 31.9 35.1 38.4 41.5 44.6 47.7 50.4 LONG(DEG W) 69.3 69.5 69.7 69.8 69.8 69.8 69.0 67.6 64.7 61.3 58.4 55.9 53.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 11 11 12 13 16 19 20 19 18 17 15 HEAT CONTENT 41 38 45 34 28 26 20 11 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 35.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. 0. 0. 0. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 6. 9. 8. 4. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 21. 27. 34. 40. 37. 32. 27. 23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 8. 11. 19. 25. 33. 39. 36. 31. 25. 21. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 09/25/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 09/25/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED