* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 09/25/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 58 57 58 54 51 48 46 42 40 32 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 58 47 33 29 27 27 27 27 25 17 V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 56 57 47 33 29 27 27 27 30 29 27 SHEAR (KTS) 32 23 30 31 29 24 28 24 39 54 59 55 54 SHEAR DIR 246 238 221 215 214 207 234 215 232 236 248 253 274 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.9 26.8 25.9 25.5 26.1 26.0 25.3 24.6 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 146 142 139 134 120 109 106 115 116 112 106 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 124 119 116 111 99 89 88 98 102 101 95 104 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -55.2 -55.2 -55.3 -55.3 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 0 2 1 0 2 0 3 1 4 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 47 45 45 41 42 39 34 34 34 35 33 37 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 20 20 19 16 12 11 9 11 12 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 88 118 120 107 103 123 83 77 47 12 5 -12 -17 200 MB DIV 30 48 61 49 23 25 -1 10 -4 -4 0 7 -24 LAND (KM) 308 202 115 36 -52 -176 -249 -290 -212 -104 256 469 671 LAT (DEG N) 32.0 32.5 32.9 33.2 33.5 34.0 34.3 34.7 35.0 35.9 37.3 38.7 38.5 LONG(DEG W) 75.7 76.9 78.0 78.9 79.8 81.2 82.1 82.2 80.7 77.3 72.5 66.5 61.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 11 9 8 7 5 3 3 11 17 23 23 22 HEAT CONTENT 35 45 16 2 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -10. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -6. -7. -9. -7. -7. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 1. -2. -6. -9. -13. -15. -21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 3. 2. 3. -1. -3. -7. -9. -13. -15. -23. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 09/25/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.5 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 09/25/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED