* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP962008 09/25/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 30 36 41 51 59 63 62 60 58 58 58 V (KT) LAND 20 24 30 36 41 51 59 63 62 60 58 58 58 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 28 31 35 37 38 39 40 SHEAR (KTS) 8 5 6 4 3 2 8 8 17 14 16 16 17 SHEAR DIR 20 42 20 122 230 298 217 211 171 185 141 110 94 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 145 143 141 138 134 130 129 128 128 127 129 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.5 -53.7 -52.4 -52.8 -53.7 -53.0 -54.0 -53.3 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 79 80 78 73 67 72 68 67 64 55 52 47 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 29 38 43 48 33 29 20 32 19 0 -9 2 200 MB DIV 126 148 139 146 137 70 110 79 99 20 -19 -6 0 LAND (KM) 1033 1010 1001 977 961 943 907 863 799 768 744 755 802 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.6 12.5 13.4 14.3 15.1 15.6 15.6 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 155.5 156.6 157.6 158.3 159.0 160.1 160.9 161.4 161.5 161.8 162.1 162.4 162.8 STM SPEED (KT) 16 11 9 8 8 6 6 5 4 4 2 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 23. 32. 37. 38. 37. 35. 35. 35. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 10. 16. 21. 31. 39. 43. 42. 40. 38. 38. 38. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP962008 INVEST 09/25/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 139.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 67% is 5.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 53% is 6.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 34% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962008 INVEST 09/25/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY