* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 09/25/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 36 39 46 52 60 65 66 63 59 51 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 36 39 46 52 60 65 66 63 59 51 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 35 37 40 41 41 39 38 38 SHEAR (KTS) 24 12 15 18 10 12 19 20 34 41 41 48 46 SHEAR DIR 267 259 247 253 264 236 237 244 268 274 277 275 273 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 27.8 26.7 26.2 26.1 26.0 26.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 142 144 146 147 136 123 118 116 113 116 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 129 129 130 131 130 119 108 102 97 94 95 96 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.7 -54.0 -55.4 -55.5 -56.2 -56.0 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 5 3 2 2 4 4 700-500 MB RH 59 61 58 54 56 59 53 50 54 45 50 53 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 15 14 14 14 14 18 21 23 24 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 41 51 35 4 -4 -7 -24 -19 -58 -82 -42 30 80 200 MB DIV 51 77 33 30 61 87 73 108 47 35 9 26 -10 LAND (KM) 331 468 606 730 856 930 838 819 709 714 773 879 967 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.8 25.0 26.2 27.3 30.0 32.6 35.4 37.6 39.0 39.3 38.8 38.0 LONG(DEG W) 68.8 68.7 68.5 68.5 68.5 68.3 67.5 65.5 62.3 58.9 56.2 54.4 52.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 12 11 12 13 15 16 16 13 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 36 38 44 38 30 24 19 8 0 1 2 1 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 34.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 8. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 18. 24. 32. 36. 37. 34. 30. 23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 6. 9. 16. 22. 30. 35. 36. 33. 29. 21. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 09/25/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 09/25/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY