* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 09/25/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 55 57 56 52 48 44 39 33 28 20 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 55 44 32 29 27 27 27 29 24 16 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 56 56 46 33 28 27 27 27 30 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 24 29 33 31 23 24 11 32 39 59 60 57 64 SHEAR DIR 240 220 215 218 205 208 226 223 228 239 247 257 272 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.8 26.6 25.4 25.0 25.2 25.5 25.0 25.3 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 142 138 133 118 105 102 106 110 108 111 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 121 118 115 110 97 87 85 89 95 95 98 99 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -54.6 -54.9 -55.2 -55.5 -55.5 -55.1 -55.4 -55.3 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 1 3 2 0 0 1 0 3 0 4 2 4 3 700-500 MB RH 49 45 42 41 43 38 36 35 37 36 40 41 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 19 20 19 20 17 12 9 8 7 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 141 122 119 117 130 113 94 43 42 7 -21 -20 -16 200 MB DIV 45 57 46 39 41 6 5 -13 -8 -6 18 -7 -14 LAND (KM) 267 182 101 20 -60 -190 -300 -332 -284 -185 125 405 560 LAT (DEG N) 32.0 32.5 32.9 33.2 33.5 34.2 34.9 35.5 35.9 36.3 37.0 38.0 38.5 LONG(DEG W) 76.4 77.4 78.3 79.1 79.9 81.1 82.0 81.9 80.6 78.1 74.4 69.3 64.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 8 7 7 6 3 4 8 13 18 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 44 40 11 1 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -13. -15. -18. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 0. -5. -10. -16. -22. -27. -33. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. -3. -7. -11. -16. -22. -27. -35. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 09/25/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 09/25/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY