* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP962008 09/25/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 25 32 40 46 58 62 67 65 59 53 53 54 V (KT) LAND 20 25 32 40 46 58 62 67 65 59 53 53 54 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 31 34 35 36 36 37 SHEAR (KTS) 6 3 2 2 4 4 10 10 17 21 20 16 13 SHEAR DIR 60 38 104 168 285 252 211 170 155 154 144 117 87 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 144 142 140 137 133 132 132 132 133 134 135 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.5 -52.8 -53.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 77 77 73 69 68 67 68 66 63 56 48 41 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 13 12 13 10 11 11 9 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 29 38 40 43 39 30 12 0 -2 -7 -15 -21 -8 200 MB DIV 163 137 140 133 105 119 91 42 29 -16 -11 -9 -13 LAND (KM) 1031 1011 1001 986 977 962 955 951 874 814 809 848 947 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.1 10.4 10.8 11.2 12.1 12.9 13.9 14.9 15.8 16.2 16.3 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 156.9 157.8 158.7 159.4 160.0 161.2 162.1 163.0 163.5 164.0 164.5 165.2 166.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 4 3 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 17. 28. 32. 38. 39. 35. 30. 29. 30. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 6. 4. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 12. 20. 26. 38. 42. 47. 45. 39. 33. 33. 34. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP962008 INVEST 09/25/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 135.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 92% is 7.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 81% is 9.8 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 55% is 9.4 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962008 INVEST 09/25/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED