* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * KYLE AL112008 09/25/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 51 55 62 70 76 79 74 65 58 53 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 51 55 62 70 76 79 74 65 58 53 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 48 51 53 57 62 64 63 60 57 54 52 SHEAR (KTS) 14 16 17 12 7 10 10 15 19 27 26 14 10 SHEAR DIR 282 251 272 277 295 261 281 284 283 294 340 322 330 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 27.9 27.0 26.8 27.3 28.0 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 141 144 146 146 137 126 122 129 138 140 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 126 127 129 130 129 119 109 103 110 122 126 126 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -52.9 -52.8 -53.7 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 9 7 6 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 62 60 57 60 59 57 58 45 51 47 49 46 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 17 18 17 19 22 24 26 24 22 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 55 41 18 9 4 -17 0 0 -82 -106 -52 -55 -57 200 MB DIV 58 37 18 53 73 39 84 78 7 -48 -21 -46 -23 LAND (KM) 408 516 624 744 864 1003 947 1023 1037 1240 1546 1568 1535 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 24.1 25.1 26.2 27.3 29.6 32.1 34.1 34.9 33.6 31.2 28.7 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 68.4 68.3 68.2 68.2 68.1 67.7 66.5 63.8 60.8 58.9 57.3 55.3 53.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 11 12 12 14 14 10 12 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 34 40 43 38 28 25 14 12 1 8 16 23 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 35.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 6. 4. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 25. 33. 38. 41. 34. 26. 18. 14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 30. 36. 39. 34. 25. 18. 13. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112008 KYLE 09/25/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112008 KYLE 09/25/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY