* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 09/25/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 58 58 55 50 45 37 28 23 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 43 36 30 28 27 27 27 26 21 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 55 43 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 24 21 SHEAR (KTS) 26 25 26 17 18 21 22 40 60 73 69 69 67 SHEAR DIR 215 222 222 226 203 234 212 232 236 242 246 259 271 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.0 25.8 25.2 25.5 26.3 25.9 25.7 25.5 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 137 132 123 109 102 107 117 115 115 114 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 119 114 109 102 90 84 89 98 100 104 104 109 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -54.3 -55.1 -55.0 -54.9 -55.3 -55.3 -55.2 -54.8 -54.9 -55.3 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 0 0 2 0 3 1 5 3 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 44 41 42 38 39 36 33 36 35 39 42 42 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 21 21 19 16 12 9 7 6 5 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 115 107 99 117 122 75 66 32 28 0 -18 -14 -4 200 MB DIV 59 40 40 52 41 -2 3 -13 11 31 7 -14 -32 LAND (KM) 172 96 4 -78 -157 -257 -333 -284 -192 -80 290 538 726 LAT (DEG N) 32.5 32.9 33.2 33.6 34.0 34.5 35.1 35.1 35.3 35.9 37.1 38.3 38.8 LONG(DEG W) 77.5 78.4 79.3 80.1 80.8 81.9 82.3 81.6 79.8 76.9 72.2 65.9 59.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 4 2 5 10 16 23 26 27 HEAT CONTENT 31 12 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -2. -7. -11. -15. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -4. -10. -16. -25. -30. -35. -41. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -5. -10. -18. -27. -32. -37. -44. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 09/25/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.3 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 09/25/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY