* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP962008 09/25/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 25 31 37 41 50 54 56 52 48 43 45 48 V (KT) LAND 20 25 31 37 41 50 54 56 52 48 43 45 48 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 30 31 31 32 33 35 SHEAR (KTS) 5 3 5 7 7 13 11 22 22 18 16 13 12 SHEAR DIR 23 206 202 268 260 216 231 198 190 156 131 131 51 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 143 140 138 135 133 133 134 136 136 138 138 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 9 8 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 77 70 67 64 63 63 62 59 53 51 43 42 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 9 9 8 8 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 37 33 32 27 16 18 5 -3 -19 -20 -17 -1 14 200 MB DIV 139 128 124 98 84 106 46 36 -2 -18 -12 -7 -9 LAND (KM) 1026 1012 1006 1009 1017 1016 1009 967 947 970 1024 1106 1224 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.3 11.7 12.7 13.7 14.6 15.3 15.8 16.0 16.0 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 158.5 159.3 160.0 160.8 161.5 162.7 163.8 164.7 165.4 166.3 167.2 168.2 169.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 24. 28. 27. 25. 20. 21. 24. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 11. 17. 21. 30. 34. 36. 32. 28. 23. 25. 28. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP962008 INVEST 09/25/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 69% is 5.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 52% is 6.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 35% is 6.1 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962008 INVEST 09/25/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY