* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * KYLE AL112008 09/26/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 60 64 71 77 84 83 80 70 61 52 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 60 64 71 77 84 78 63 53 41 32 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 55 59 62 66 67 62 51 44 43 41 44 SHEAR (KTS) 20 20 13 7 9 19 27 29 27 33 47 47 46 SHEAR DIR 249 269 280 275 233 239 224 227 237 224 218 226 243 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 27.7 26.8 19.5 13.3 13.6 11.9 8.8 8.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 145 147 148 135 125 82 71 70 67 64 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 128 131 134 134 121 112 76 68 67 65 62 62 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.0 -52.4 -53.2 -53.0 -54.2 -55.2 -56.8 -57.4 -59.1 -60.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 9 9 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 58 59 58 60 61 61 64 67 59 51 46 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 18 19 20 20 22 29 27 23 16 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 39 15 15 16 4 -11 2 53 67 47 -12 -41 -45 200 MB DIV 32 31 54 95 47 103 112 144 96 63 59 21 15 LAND (KM) 537 645 756 913 962 731 599 264 25 33 25 118 299 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 25.3 26.3 27.8 29.3 32.7 36.3 40.6 45.2 48.8 50.9 52.4 53.4 LONG(DEG W) 68.0 68.1 68.1 68.4 68.6 68.7 68.6 67.6 65.4 62.0 57.4 54.0 51.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 13 15 16 17 20 23 23 20 16 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 39 42 37 28 30 24 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 5. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 3. 7. 12. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 9. 8. 5. -1. -6. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 21. 28. 35. 41. 40. 36. 26. 16. 9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 15. 19. 26. 32. 39. 38. 35. 25. 16. 7. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112008 KYLE 09/26/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112008 KYLE 09/26/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY