* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 09/26/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 57 57 53 48 45 39 32 28 24 19 V (KT) LAND 55 47 39 34 31 28 27 27 27 27 26 22 17 V (KT) LGE mod 55 48 39 34 31 28 27 27 27 27 29 27 26 SHEAR (KTS) 27 23 15 19 22 15 29 38 60 59 60 58 54 SHEAR DIR 214 220 205 197 216 221 213 220 232 240 248 265 281 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.1 26.2 25.3 24.5 24.4 24.7 25.5 24.4 25.1 25.6 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 139 136 125 115 106 98 96 101 110 103 110 114 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 114 104 96 89 81 80 86 94 91 98 102 108 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 -55.4 -55.6 -55.6 -55.1 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 2 1 0 3 1 4 2 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 45 45 42 39 43 39 38 32 32 38 37 39 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 20 16 15 10 7 7 7 6 5 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 107 103 116 119 82 67 50 48 28 7 3 -1 17 200 MB DIV 51 42 41 55 10 1 0 -20 -10 15 3 -27 -23 LAND (KM) 56 -26 -127 -213 -298 -418 -430 -354 -259 -26 309 546 774 LAT (DEG N) 33.4 33.9 34.4 34.8 35.2 35.8 36.0 36.0 36.1 36.9 37.8 38.2 37.7 LONG(DEG W) 78.2 79.2 80.1 80.9 81.7 82.8 82.8 81.7 79.5 76.3 71.5 65.9 60.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 7 3 2 7 11 17 21 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 4 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 3. -1. -4. -7. -11. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -12. -12. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -6. -9. -14. -21. -25. -29. -34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -7. -10. -16. -23. -27. -31. -36. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 09/26/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 09/26/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY