* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP962008 09/26/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 29 34 38 45 50 52 49 47 42 44 47 V (KT) LAND 20 24 29 34 38 45 50 52 49 47 42 44 47 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 28 30 31 32 33 34 36 SHEAR (KTS) 3 1 6 6 2 14 11 18 18 15 18 13 4 SHEAR DIR 44 168 279 306 290 226 215 200 182 166 141 138 83 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 144 141 138 135 133 134 135 136 138 138 138 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.0 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 69 67 63 63 60 62 58 54 51 48 42 42 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 7 7 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 41 37 25 12 6 3 -11 -17 -28 -30 -39 -28 -17 200 MB DIV 127 133 92 69 83 59 24 19 -27 -28 -19 -6 -18 LAND (KM) 1087 1086 1091 1096 1107 1126 1093 1080 1088 1131 1182 1258 1361 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.4 10.7 11.2 11.6 12.5 13.4 14.1 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.5 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 159.8 160.5 161.2 162.0 162.7 163.9 164.9 165.8 166.7 167.7 168.7 169.6 170.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 8 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -6. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 24. 27. 26. 25. 20. 21. 24. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 18. 25. 30. 32. 29. 27. 22. 24. 27. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP962008 INVEST 09/26/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 57% is 4.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 40% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962008 INVEST 09/26/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY