* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * KYLE AL112008 09/26/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 58 61 64 71 77 81 78 74 66 60 52 V (KT) LAND 50 53 58 61 64 71 77 81 54 53 45 38 29 V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 58 61 63 66 66 57 40 40 41 41 45 SHEAR (KTS) 22 14 5 14 18 18 26 38 35 44 48 51 49 SHEAR DIR 269 272 288 245 247 239 226 220 232 220 228 240 252 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.5 27.3 25.3 15.5 14.0 13.7 12.4 9.1 9.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 145 147 149 146 131 111 73 70 69 67 66 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 130 133 135 132 117 99 69 67 66 65 64 65 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.6 -54.1 -55.5 -56.2 -57.1 -59.3 -60.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 9 8 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 53 55 53 56 60 57 60 59 51 45 47 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 17 18 18 20 23 28 24 20 14 11 7 850 MB ENV VOR 17 10 16 6 -12 1 -9 30 43 20 -24 -35 -8 200 MB DIV 35 58 106 36 31 131 128 125 71 53 40 0 4 LAND (KM) 614 739 867 978 843 675 449 169 -32 44 64 96 446 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 26.2 27.4 28.9 30.4 33.9 38.1 42.2 45.9 48.7 50.5 52.2 52.9 LONG(DEG W) 68.2 68.4 68.5 68.8 69.1 68.8 68.0 66.6 64.6 61.8 58.4 54.3 49.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 14 15 17 19 21 20 18 15 15 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 43 38 29 32 18 23 0 0 9999 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 7. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 4. 8. 13. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 6. 2. -3. -5. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 24. 29. 33. 29. 24. 16. 10. 3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 8. 11. 14. 21. 27. 31. 28. 24. 16. 10. 2. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112008 KYLE 09/26/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112008 KYLE 09/26/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED