* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP962008 09/26/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 35 43 47 46 42 42 41 44 48 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 35 43 47 46 42 42 41 44 48 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 29 30 30 31 32 34 SHEAR (KTS) 2 5 4 2 4 14 16 20 20 16 17 14 11 SHEAR DIR 83 244 300 298 238 242 223 211 209 192 172 183 180 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 141 138 136 133 135 135 137 139 140 140 140 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.7 -54.0 -53.3 -53.5 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 63 61 65 60 60 63 63 59 53 51 47 42 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 12 -3 -14 -11 -26 -40 -55 -50 -53 -48 -46 -33 200 MB DIV 93 63 32 44 57 5 7 -32 -26 -33 -17 -21 -10 LAND (KM) 1158 1153 1154 1159 1172 1156 1138 1150 1201 1280 1391 1519 1655 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.5 10.9 11.4 11.9 12.8 13.6 14.3 14.9 15.3 15.5 15.5 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 161.2 161.9 162.5 163.2 163.9 165.0 166.0 167.1 168.4 169.7 171.1 172.5 173.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 25. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 20. 21. 20. 19. 19. 21. 25. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 16. 23. 27. 26. 23. 22. 21. 24. 28. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP962008 INVEST 09/26/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962008 INVEST 09/26/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY