* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * KYLE AL112008 09/26/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 57 60 66 70 73 75 75 71 67 64 V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 57 60 66 70 73 42 38 32 31 28 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 55 57 59 61 59 49 34 36 30 36 44 SHEAR (KTS) 17 12 13 16 17 27 35 33 36 40 46 45 43 SHEAR DIR 285 300 259 245 236 225 216 212 218 228 246 242 244 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.0 27.0 19.4 12.9 13.4 12.9 10.6 7.6 9.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 147 149 146 140 128 81 68 68 69 67 65 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 133 135 132 126 115 75 66 65 66 65 64 65 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -54.8 -55.2 -56.1 -57.1 -59.0 -60.0 -61.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 58 58 56 58 58 60 63 58 52 51 60 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 18 17 18 18 18 22 24 23 22 20 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 5 10 8 -14 -2 6 39 51 60 -7 -31 0 33 200 MB DIV 45 89 62 60 78 93 137 131 87 60 43 41 33 LAND (KM) 710 861 959 811 672 558 200 57 -45 -9 -132 152 492 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 27.4 28.8 30.4 32.0 35.9 40.6 44.2 46.7 49.3 52.3 54.4 55.0 LONG(DEG W) 68.7 69.0 69.2 69.6 69.9 69.6 68.5 67.1 65.5 62.9 59.1 54.7 49.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 15 16 18 22 21 16 14 17 18 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 37 31 31 20 17 15 0 0 9999 0 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 11 CX,CY: -3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 8. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 3. 6. 11. 17. 23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 20. 24. 26. 26. 24. 21. 17. 16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 10. 16. 20. 23. 25. 25. 21. 17. 14. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112008 KYLE 09/26/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112008 KYLE 09/26/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY