* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP962008 09/26/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 39 40 37 35 37 38 41 44 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 39 40 37 35 37 38 41 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 32 34 35 34 32 31 30 31 32 SHEAR (KTS) 3 6 3 9 8 17 24 23 19 16 17 9 6 SHEAR DIR 335 274 312 249 228 217 208 192 182 163 157 167 193 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 141 138 136 133 133 134 137 138 138 139 140 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 64 61 60 60 63 64 59 54 51 45 44 43 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 -6 -20 -22 -24 -43 -43 -50 -50 -51 -38 -24 -8 200 MB DIV 70 23 27 38 22 -6 -14 -10 -14 -29 -33 -30 -20 LAND (KM) 1131 1113 1101 1098 1102 1092 1071 1101 1163 1280 1427 1601 1795 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.6 11.2 11.7 12.2 13.1 13.8 14.3 14.6 14.6 14.4 14.0 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 160.7 161.4 162.1 162.7 163.3 164.3 165.2 166.4 167.6 169.1 170.7 172.4 174.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 19. 22. 23. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 11. 11. 11. 12. 14. 17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 12. 10. 12. 13. 16. 19. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP962008 INVEST 09/26/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962008 INVEST 09/26/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED