* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * KYLE AL112008 09/26/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 52 54 56 59 65 67 69 74 73 72 68 V (KT) LAND 50 50 52 54 56 59 65 67 47 42 31 33 30 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 52 53 55 57 55 48 38 38 30 35 45 SHEAR (KTS) 16 13 15 16 16 26 29 33 41 37 24 36 41 SHEAR DIR 286 273 264 258 238 249 219 219 220 231 228 224 216 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.3 27.6 26.5 18.5 13.0 13.6 12.2 9.6 7.2 8.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 149 144 134 122 78 69 69 67 66 65 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 133 134 130 121 109 72 66 66 65 64 64 64 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -53.2 -53.8 -53.3 -54.6 -54.7 -55.4 -55.6 -57.2 -58.4 -58.8 -59.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 7 7 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 58 59 61 57 55 56 57 50 48 59 65 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 15 15 15 14 18 20 19 23 19 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 3 7 -1 -4 8 22 52 82 58 25 18 43 43 200 MB DIV 80 76 68 76 96 95 122 93 91 75 91 70 83 LAND (KM) 809 954 897 753 636 509 254 13 14 -3 -198 97 382 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 28.3 29.6 31.4 33.1 37.1 41.0 44.4 47.6 50.3 52.7 54.6 55.1 LONG(DEG W) 68.7 69.0 69.2 69.4 69.6 68.9 67.5 66.2 64.8 62.8 60.1 56.4 51.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 16 18 18 20 19 17 16 14 15 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 33 31 27 15 21 5 0 0 0 0 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 35.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 9. 10. 10. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 2. 1. 4. 1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 18. 20. 21. 24. 23. 22. 20. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 17. 19. 24. 23. 22. 18. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112008 KYLE 09/26/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112008 KYLE 09/26/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY