* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * KYLE AL112008 09/27/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 54 56 58 63 67 65 66 67 65 65 61 V (KT) LAND 50 51 54 56 58 63 67 48 46 33 30 30 29 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 52 54 55 55 50 37 38 31 30 30 41 SHEAR (KTS) 14 14 15 16 27 27 31 40 48 49 41 37 42 SHEAR DIR 279 263 257 229 236 232 211 206 228 243 247 242 241 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.6 27.0 23.8 14.9 13.7 12.7 10.8 9.0 6.6 7.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 143 134 127 100 71 70 68 64 62 63 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 130 127 120 113 89 68 67 65 62 61 62 62 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.0 -53.6 -54.6 -54.2 -54.7 -55.8 -57.6 -59.5 -60.5 -60.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 7 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 58 59 57 56 55 57 54 43 41 44 56 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 17 16 17 18 20 25 22 21 20 16 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -6 -15 -9 -6 0 31 78 15 -26 -22 -9 -5 200 MB DIV 71 54 70 99 62 95 97 58 42 35 74 57 33 LAND (KM) 1008 894 787 692 639 381 140 -37 -16 -172 -245 -47 139 LAT (DEG N) 28.7 30.0 31.3 33.1 34.9 38.8 42.5 46.1 49.5 51.8 52.9 54.1 54.4 LONG(DEG W) 68.6 68.8 69.0 69.0 68.9 68.0 66.6 64.9 63.3 62.0 61.0 58.8 55.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 16 18 19 20 19 18 15 9 7 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 31 24 14 24 18 0 0 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 13 CX,CY: 0/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 9. 10. 9. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 17. 23. 29. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 5. 4. 3. 0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 20. 18. 17. 18. 16. 16. 12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 6. 8. 13. 17. 15. 16. 17. 15. 15. 11. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112008 KYLE 09/27/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112008 KYLE 09/27/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY