* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP962008 09/27/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 27 27 23 21 22 26 29 34 39 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 27 27 23 21 22 26 29 34 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 20 19 18 19 20 21 SHEAR (KTS) 6 11 16 19 26 29 27 14 9 10 11 9 8 SHEAR DIR 215 210 213 213 213 206 203 199 187 120 96 109 99 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 136 134 132 132 132 134 136 137 138 139 141 142 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 56 56 59 60 57 52 47 44 41 42 42 46 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -20 -19 -26 -36 -30 -35 -40 -36 -22 -12 4 22 200 MB DIV 16 35 18 -5 -3 -15 -26 -16 -3 -10 -22 -68 -52 LAND (KM) 1002 979 963 958 957 949 985 1074 1193 1364 1563 1803 2033 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.2 12.8 13.3 13.7 14.3 14.6 14.7 14.6 14.0 13.3 12.4 11.7 LONG(DEG W) 161.1 161.6 162.1 162.5 162.9 163.8 165.0 166.5 168.0 169.6 171.4 173.5 175.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 7 6 6 5 7 7 8 9 11 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -5. -3. 0. 3. 7. 12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. -2. -4. -3. 1. 4. 9. 14. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP962008 INVEST 09/27/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962008 INVEST 09/27/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY