* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * KYLE AL112008 09/27/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 66 67 74 73 71 68 67 63 62 60 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 66 67 74 73 47 43 31 33 32 30 V (KT) LGE mod 60 64 66 68 68 63 52 34 34 30 34 43 52 SHEAR (KTS) 17 17 20 25 31 30 31 39 41 44 38 39 47 SHEAR DIR 256 242 220 229 224 197 211 216 228 241 250 236 225 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 27.7 27.2 26.9 20.6 13.0 13.7 12.4 11.2 8.2 9.4 12.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 135 129 126 84 69 69 67 66 65 67 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 127 120 114 111 77 67 66 65 64 64 65 67 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.1 -52.9 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -54.6 -55.3 -56.6 -58.7 -60.5 -61.0 -60.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 60 53 52 53 55 54 46 46 46 53 54 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 17 19 20 28 27 25 18 15 9 9 11 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -3 4 9 14 41 83 63 22 -13 -21 41 157 200 MB DIV 53 83 117 71 81 128 82 49 44 34 41 72 80 LAND (KM) 881 760 659 615 583 281 33 12 18 -117 44 407 778 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 31.3 32.8 34.6 36.3 40.2 44.2 47.3 49.9 52.0 53.0 53.0 52.0 LONG(DEG W) 69.2 69.4 69.5 69.3 69.0 67.7 66.5 64.8 62.8 59.7 55.2 49.8 43.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 18 19 20 19 15 14 14 15 18 21 HEAT CONTENT 25 15 22 21 12 0 0 0 0 9999 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 13 CX,CY: -2/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 34.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -7. -12. -16. -19. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 25. 29. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 7. 5. 0. -4. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 19. 18. 15. 10. 7. 3. 2. 1. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 13. 11. 8. 7. 3. 2. 0. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112008 KYLE 09/27/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112008 KYLE 09/27/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED