* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP962008 09/27/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 28 27 26 28 34 40 44 48 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 28 27 26 28 34 40 44 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 20 18 18 19 21 24 SHEAR (KTS) 3 8 11 15 25 26 24 13 7 3 3 3 8 SHEAR DIR 199 205 213 199 215 211 217 228 207 161 158 300 324 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 27.0 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 132 132 131 132 133 135 136 138 138 138 138 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 56 57 59 58 55 51 44 38 38 39 40 42 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -24 -27 -32 -28 -30 -32 -41 -28 -4 17 25 31 200 MB DIV 28 13 -13 -7 -4 -20 -5 -13 -14 -31 -9 -29 -24 LAND (KM) 971 942 918 904 894 890 905 965 1062 1186 1344 1497 1646 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.4 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.7 15.2 15.5 15.4 15.0 14.5 14.0 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 160.9 161.3 161.7 162.1 162.4 163.4 164.6 165.9 167.1 168.3 169.8 171.2 172.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 3. 9. 15. 19. 23. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP962008 INVEST 09/27/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962008 INVEST 09/27/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY