* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * KYLE AL112008 09/27/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 67 72 74 71 68 67 64 67 68 65 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 67 72 74 47 40 32 30 30 35 32 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 63 63 62 54 38 32 31 30 30 43 54 SHEAR (KTS) 15 23 27 27 21 25 32 38 38 36 34 47 42 SHEAR DIR 239 222 225 232 183 208 201 208 223 232 230 215 230 SST (C) 28.3 27.7 27.2 26.7 23.9 14.3 13.3 12.7 11.4 8.5 7.1 8.0 11.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 135 130 125 101 71 69 67 65 64 64 66 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 120 115 111 91 68 66 64 63 62 63 64 66 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -52.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -54.1 -55.6 -57.1 -58.9 -59.9 -59.1 -56.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 53 52 50 53 54 56 45 47 51 58 54 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 22 23 28 31 28 23 20 14 13 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 0 6 20 33 58 74 100 76 57 29 36 151 163 200 MB DIV 92 131 98 112 147 78 63 79 60 55 58 74 88 LAND (KM) 756 657 594 545 356 157 -69 17 -112 -232 -4 221 593 LAT (DEG N) 31.2 32.9 34.5 36.6 38.7 42.8 46.4 49.1 51.3 53.1 53.8 53.5 52.3 LONG(DEG W) 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.2 68.9 67.5 65.7 64.3 63.3 61.1 57.2 52.6 46.5 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 19 21 21 20 17 13 11 11 13 16 20 HEAT CONTENT 15 22 21 8 0 0 9999 0 9999 9999 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 13 CX,CY: -2/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 0. -5. -11. -16. -20. -23. -25. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 11. 12. 12. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 26. 28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -20. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 7. 3. 1. -4. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 8. 14. 16. 13. 10. 8. 6. 8. 10. 7. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 12. 14. 11. 8. 7. 4. 7. 8. 5. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112008 KYLE 09/27/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112008 KYLE 09/27/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY