* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * KYLE AL112008 09/27/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 61 61 63 63 60 59 57 58 63 63 61 V (KT) LAND 60 60 61 61 63 54 34 32 30 30 30 33 31 V (KT) LGE mod 60 60 59 57 54 46 31 30 30 30 30 41 52 SHEAR (KTS) 22 29 34 27 33 31 39 34 27 22 28 55 31 SHEAR DIR 225 228 236 212 197 197 219 242 248 220 224 205 173 SST (C) 27.5 27.1 26.6 22.9 17.7 12.9 12.7 11.8 10.5 8.5 7.3 7.9 10.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 128 123 95 77 69 67 65 63 63 64 65 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 114 109 86 72 67 65 62 61 62 63 64 65 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.4 -54.2 -54.7 -53.9 -55.4 -55.5 -57.6 -58.9 -60.1 -59.1 -57.7 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 52 51 54 56 54 46 45 52 62 65 67 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 19 19 20 25 26 22 20 15 11 12 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 0 13 23 41 50 81 35 9 21 36 66 195 193 200 MB DIV 135 87 67 116 149 90 39 55 69 81 72 109 110 LAND (KM) 619 582 501 319 204 -22 -41 -45 -190 -250 -56 153 534 LAT (DEG N) 33.3 35.2 37.0 39.2 41.3 45.3 48.6 50.7 52.0 53.1 53.6 53.3 52.5 LONG(DEG W) 69.7 69.5 69.3 68.7 68.0 66.6 65.1 64.1 63.4 61.5 58.0 53.6 47.8 STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 20 22 21 19 14 9 7 9 12 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 20 17 3 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 17 CX,CY: 0/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -10. -16. -20. -24. -27. -29. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 11. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 22. 28. 31. 32. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 3. 2. -3. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 1. 1. -1. 0. 5. 6. 3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 0. -1. -3. -2. 3. 3. 1. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112008 KYLE 09/27/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112008 KYLE 09/27/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY