* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * KYLE AL112008 09/28/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 64 64 64 60 58 57 57 61 64 60 52 V (KT) LAND 65 65 64 64 64 39 35 30 30 30 30 31 23 V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 64 60 54 35 34 31 30 30 30 36 45 SHEAR (KTS) 28 27 28 30 33 38 39 36 42 46 47 59 65 SHEAR DIR 228 233 203 200 206 218 224 237 245 248 244 247 255 SST (C) 27.1 26.3 22.8 17.7 13.5 13.2 12.3 11.7 10.5 8.6 8.1 8.1 10.4 POT. INT. (KT) 129 120 94 77 70 68 66 64 63 63 64 65 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 106 85 72 68 66 63 61 61 61 62 64 65 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.7 -54.5 -55.7 -57.1 -58.1 -58.8 -58.4 -56.5 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 58 58 61 60 49 38 38 41 44 45 47 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 23 25 28 24 20 17 12 12 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 31 33 52 58 75 86 62 60 45 23 30 11 54 200 MB DIV 122 129 168 143 126 47 61 37 44 36 52 58 41 LAND (KM) 562 479 308 200 109 -66 37 -66 -189 -280 -112 98 466 LAT (DEG N) 35.3 37.3 39.2 41.3 43.4 46.9 49.4 50.9 52.0 53.0 53.3 53.0 52.2 LONG(DEG W) 69.7 69.3 68.8 68.1 67.3 65.8 64.7 64.0 63.6 62.0 58.7 54.4 48.7 STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 21 22 20 16 10 7 6 8 11 15 18 HEAT CONTENT 17 2 0 0 0 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 20 CX,CY: 0/ 20 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -4. -8. -15. -22. -27. -31. -34. -36. -37. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 11. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 7. 12. 19. 26. 33. 35. 36. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. -23. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 2. -1. -3. -7. -8. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -3. -4. -6. -3. 0. -4. -12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -1. -1. -5. -7. -8. -8. -4. -1. -5. -13. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112008 KYLE 09/28/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 137.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112008 KYLE 09/28/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY