* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * KYLE AL112008 09/28/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 62 61 58 55 53 51 50 47 58 55 44 V (KT) LAND 65 63 62 61 48 39 37 31 30 30 30 29 18 V (KT) LGE mod 65 63 59 53 43 36 36 31 30 30 30 36 40 SHEAR (KTS) 26 26 30 33 29 41 33 39 43 76 79 63 64 SHEAR DIR 226 205 191 196 205 212 228 246 248 256 249 245 253 SST (C) 26.2 22.4 17.5 13.5 13.0 13.4 12.5 12.0 11.5 11.1 10.5 9.2 10.9 POT. INT. (KT) 119 92 76 71 69 67 64 63 63 64 65 66 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 84 72 68 67 64 61 60 60 62 63 64 65 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.9 -54.1 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -56.2 -58.1 -58.9 -58.0 -57.2 -57.4 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 58 59 59 55 48 45 42 44 38 40 44 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 22 25 29 25 24 19 13 8 3 17 18 13 850 MB ENV VOR 41 49 68 73 77 62 52 48 34 -13 -6 54 89 200 MB DIV 137 148 146 119 92 53 47 40 20 6 53 38 43 LAND (KM) 464 290 177 108 -41 18 6 -23 -103 -168 -83 131 454 LAT (DEG N) 37.3 39.4 41.4 43.5 45.5 48.2 49.6 50.5 51.2 51.8 52.1 52.0 51.7 LONG(DEG W) 69.5 68.9 68.3 67.3 66.3 64.5 64.0 63.5 62.7 61.0 57.8 53.7 48.3 STM SPEED (KT) 21 21 21 22 18 11 6 5 5 8 11 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 9999 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 20 CX,CY: 0/ 20 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -8. -12. -20. -26. -31. -35. -38. -39. -39. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 9. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 21. 28. 32. 33. 33. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -21. -23. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 3. 2. -1. -6. -10. -15. -3. -3. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -17. -6. -9. -19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -18. -7. -10. -21. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112008 KYLE 09/28/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 128.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112008 KYLE 09/28/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED