* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * KYLE AL112008 09/28/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 67 64 61 57 53 50 48 46 46 44 41 40 V (KT) LAND 70 67 64 61 41 41 38 32 30 30 30 31 30 V (KT) LGE mod 70 67 61 56 39 40 34 34 30 30 30 36 42 SHEAR (KTS) 25 25 27 29 35 36 34 41 44 63 61 63 73 SHEAR DIR 206 186 190 200 199 220 248 249 245 251 254 253 256 SST (C) 22.4 17.5 13.6 13.0 13.6 13.1 12.4 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.3 10.0 10.6 POT. INT. (KT) 92 76 70 69 68 66 63 62 62 64 65 65 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 83 71 67 66 65 63 60 60 60 61 63 64 65 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.1 -55.0 -55.4 -55.0 -55.8 -57.8 -58.3 -58.7 -57.2 -56.6 -56.7 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 57 56 50 47 44 42 45 41 40 45 46 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 22 27 26 22 22 17 13 7 5 3 5 12 850 MB ENV VOR 38 53 71 81 93 52 40 21 -2 -7 37 91 92 200 MB DIV 130 146 107 93 64 28 28 22 17 66 42 25 20 LAND (KM) 306 232 85 22 -18 22 0 -13 -70 -130 -47 82 390 LAT (DEG N) 39.4 41.4 43.3 45.0 46.6 48.8 49.8 50.4 50.9 51.4 51.7 51.6 51.5 LONG(DEG W) 68.4 67.7 66.9 66.0 65.1 63.9 63.4 63.0 62.5 61.0 58.1 54.3 49.2 STM SPEED (KT) 21 20 19 18 14 8 4 3 4 7 11 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 21 CX,CY: 7/ 20 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -12. -17. -25. -33. -38. -42. -45. -46. -46. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 10. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 24. 30. 34. 35. 36. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -14. -18. -22. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. -4. -7. -12. -14. -15. -14. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -18. -22. -24. -25. -28. -28. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -20. -22. -24. -24. -26. -28. -30. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112008 KYLE 09/28/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 0.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112008 KYLE 09/28/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY