* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952008 09/28/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 54 56 58 61 66 68 70 67 64 66 64 V (KT) LAND 50 51 54 56 58 61 66 68 70 67 64 66 64 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 52 55 59 66 65 60 56 54 52 52 51 SHEAR (KTS) 2 7 19 17 23 27 13 8 12 43 60 52 47 SHEAR DIR 53 24 4 357 335 314 275 233 258 303 300 295 297 SST (C) 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.7 25.4 24.0 21.3 18.6 16.1 14.6 14.9 17.8 17.1 POT. INT. (KT) 118 117 115 111 108 98 83 74 68 67 69 75 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 98 96 92 90 83 73 67 63 63 65 69 69 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -57.6 -57.7 -58.0 -58.3 -57.4 -56.7 -56.4 -57.2 -56.2 -55.4 -55.0 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 47 47 46 48 50 53 57 51 43 44 45 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 29 28 26 24 21 22 21 20 17 15 20 23 850 MB ENV VOR 180 172 169 147 131 106 108 116 109 129 117 156 158 200 MB DIV 10 -15 -51 -30 3 46 46 20 15 5 9 11 0 LAND (KM) 1395 1303 1216 1120 1027 806 615 504 470 523 674 969 1334 LAT (DEG N) 37.0 37.3 37.6 38.2 38.7 40.5 42.4 44.0 45.2 46.1 47.0 48.0 48.1 LONG(DEG W) 42.4 43.7 44.9 45.9 46.8 47.9 48.2 47.9 47.4 46.3 43.9 39.8 34.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 9 9 10 8 7 6 8 12 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. 13. 9. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 19. 22. 25. 27. 29. 29. 29. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -7. -9. -12. -13. -10. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 17. 19. 21. 18. 16. 18. 17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 16. 18. 20. 17. 14. 16. 14. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952008 INVEST 09/28/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952008 INVEST 09/28/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY