* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * KYLE AL112008 09/28/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 67 63 59 56 52 49 47 49 52 50 45 39 V (KT) LAND 70 67 48 44 41 34 31 30 30 30 30 31 25 V (KT) LGE mod 70 67 49 40 43 37 34 30 30 30 30 34 40 SHEAR (KTS) 25 26 27 35 38 28 26 28 48 52 59 63 74 SHEAR DIR 198 191 201 201 215 227 259 238 244 243 246 249 246 SST (C) 17.0 13.9 13.7 14.5 14.4 12.9 12.1 11.5 10.8 10.1 9.9 9.1 9.9 POT. INT. (KT) 75 70 69 69 68 65 63 62 61 62 64 65 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 71 67 66 66 65 62 61 59 59 60 62 63 65 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.8 -55.2 -54.7 -54.8 -56.8 -58.3 -58.5 -57.4 -56.1 -55.9 -56.1 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 59 55 49 49 49 51 52 46 45 49 46 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 25 25 23 22 19 14 9 9 10 10 9 11 850 MB ENV VOR 41 51 59 84 53 29 24 37 29 31 29 87 107 200 MB DIV 127 105 87 58 48 27 30 48 28 45 33 43 74 LAND (KM) 232 27 -13 13 94 -24 -38 -115 -171 -217 -143 50 395 LAT (DEG N) 41.6 43.3 45.0 46.3 47.6 49.4 50.6 51.3 51.8 52.3 52.5 52.4 52.1 LONG(DEG W) 66.7 65.7 64.7 64.0 63.3 62.5 62.3 62.3 62.3 61.3 58.6 55.0 49.8 STM SPEED (KT) 21 18 16 14 12 8 5 3 3 6 10 13 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 23 CX,CY: 12/ 20 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -4. -9. -14. -19. -27. -34. -39. -43. -46. -47. -47. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 13. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 25. 31. 35. 36. 36. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -22. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -6. -10. -11. -10. -10. -11. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. -20. -18. -20. -25. -29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -7. -11. -14. -18. -21. -23. -21. -18. -20. -25. -31. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112008 KYLE 09/28/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -3.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112008 KYLE 09/28/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY