* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952008 09/28/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 56 57 61 64 65 62 58 59 58 55 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 56 57 61 64 65 62 58 59 58 55 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 53 56 59 63 61 57 54 51 49 48 48 SHEAR (KTS) 10 19 23 27 26 20 10 14 32 58 61 54 39 SHEAR DIR 7 13 357 344 330 308 270 248 301 297 291 307 314 SST (C) 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.5 25.2 23.4 20.7 18.6 16.7 14.8 16.6 17.8 18.1 POT. INT. (KT) 118 115 112 109 106 94 80 73 69 69 74 77 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 96 93 91 88 80 70 65 64 65 69 71 72 200 MB T (C) -57.7 -57.7 -58.0 -57.9 -57.2 -56.8 -56.3 -56.1 -55.6 -54.8 -54.6 -55.4 -56.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 43 45 45 46 52 59 57 43 43 37 36 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 27 25 25 24 23 23 22 19 17 20 22 24 850 MB ENV VOR 167 161 140 129 122 108 123 121 99 89 94 83 87 200 MB DIV -11 -63 -16 0 23 28 19 -17 -36 -2 32 3 -36 LAND (KM) 1305 1214 1126 1031 938 741 579 488 434 526 805 1258 1551 LAT (DEG N) 37.1 37.5 37.9 38.6 39.2 41.0 42.7 43.8 44.8 46.0 47.2 47.5 46.6 LONG(DEG W) 44.0 45.2 46.3 47.1 47.8 48.3 48.4 48.4 48.2 46.3 42.1 36.0 30.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 9 7 5 7 12 18 21 21 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 8. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. 26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -12. -9. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 16. 14. 9. 10. 10. 7. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 14. 15. 12. 8. 9. 8. 5. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952008 INVEST 09/28/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952008 INVEST 09/28/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY