* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * KYLE AL112008 09/29/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 59 54 50 47 43 41 42 48 53 51 50 44 V (KT) LAND 65 56 47 43 40 33 30 30 30 30 31 30 25 V (KT) LGE mod 65 57 48 47 45 42 31 30 30 30 38 44 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 30 28 38 40 36 27 26 36 44 55 55 50 N/A SHEAR DIR 196 200 207 222 227 243 253 242 255 252 252 268 N/A SST (C) 13.2 13.4 14.2 13.9 13.0 12.1 11.5 10.6 10.4 10.6 9.7 12.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 70 69 69 68 66 63 62 63 64 66 67 69 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 67 66 66 64 63 61 60 60 62 64 65 66 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.2 -54.9 -55.4 -56.1 -58.1 -58.5 -57.9 -57.4 -57.2 -57.3 -58.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 51 48 46 45 42 44 39 36 34 36 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 23 22 21 21 20 15 10 8 11 13 9 11 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 62 70 36 26 45 38 32 31 34 13 -8 N/A 200 MB DIV 99 87 61 36 24 26 12 50 29 21 25 -3 N/A LAND (KM) 13 26 7 74 39 -1 -90 -179 -194 -68 207 526 N/A LAT (DEG N) 43.8 45.3 46.7 47.9 49.0 50.3 51.1 51.9 52.2 52.0 51.5 51.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.2 65.3 64.3 63.9 63.5 63.6 64.2 63.5 61.0 57.6 52.5 46.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 16 14 12 9 5 4 6 9 13 17 19 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 23 CX,CY: 4/ 23 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -4. -9. -13. -18. -26. -32. -37. -39. -41. -42. -41. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 13. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 19. 24. 30. 36. 40. 41. 42. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -22. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -11. -13. -10. -10. -13. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -13. -15. -19. -22. -21. -16. -12. -13. -14. -19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -11. -15. -18. -22. -24. -23. -17. -12. -14. -15. -21. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112008 KYLE 09/29/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 0.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112008 KYLE 09/29/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY