* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952008 09/29/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 57 60 64 66 66 63 61 64 68 64 V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 57 60 64 66 66 63 61 64 68 64 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 55 58 61 65 63 58 55 52 51 51 51 SHEAR (KTS) 16 23 25 26 26 11 7 21 38 45 46 36 28 SHEAR DIR 26 12 347 336 324 308 248 304 302 292 294 307 318 SST (C) 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.5 23.5 20.9 19.5 17.5 15.6 18.0 17.0 17.4 POT. INT. (KT) 118 115 113 111 109 94 81 76 72 71 76 75 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 95 94 93 91 80 71 68 67 67 70 70 70 200 MB T (C) -57.3 -58.2 -58.1 -57.9 -57.4 -56.7 -55.9 -55.8 -54.8 -54.9 -55.2 -56.3 -57.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 5 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 45 46 47 49 54 58 55 46 46 37 26 23 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 24 24 22 22 22 20 19 15 15 19 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR 165 150 143 135 130 99 95 91 70 67 76 80 38 200 MB DIV -41 -12 -4 17 34 30 4 -16 -5 13 15 -12 -51 LAND (KM) 1269 1206 1145 1050 954 733 586 525 522 644 963 1386 1424 LAT (DEG N) 36.7 37.0 37.3 38.1 38.8 40.8 42.4 43.4 44.7 46.4 47.8 48.1 47.2 LONG(DEG W) 45.7 46.6 47.4 48.0 48.5 49.0 48.8 48.3 47.0 44.5 39.9 34.2 28.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 8 9 9 9 7 7 10 15 18 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 17. 19. 20. 22. 24. 25. 27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -11. -8. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 19. 18. 14. 12. 14. 19. 16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 17. 16. 13. 11. 14. 18. 14. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952008 INVEST 09/29/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952008 INVEST 09/29/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY