* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912008 09/29/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 41 45 54 62 69 75 77 90 94 94 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 41 45 54 62 69 75 77 90 94 94 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 30 33 36 39 43 47 SHEAR (KTS) 8 11 13 16 14 8 6 2 4 8 6 9 12 SHEAR DIR 88 70 61 60 73 86 94 243 333 304 302 248 249 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 153 153 154 153 152 151 149 148 147 145 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.1 -53.6 -52.6 -52.4 -53.2 -52.1 -52.7 -51.9 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 7 5 9 6 10 7 9 700-500 MB RH 82 82 82 80 81 76 74 70 69 67 66 63 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 9 8 11 9 10 10 12 14 17 25 28 30 850 MB ENV VOR 31 31 30 27 9 -12 -6 -9 16 11 39 52 74 200 MB DIV 106 100 95 104 100 93 102 119 73 46 77 92 73 LAND (KM) 474 504 539 556 536 490 482 468 394 339 285 280 307 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.6 12.4 13.5 14.9 16.1 17.1 18.0 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 94.0 94.6 95.1 95.9 96.7 98.5 100.7 102.9 104.6 105.6 106.3 107.2 108.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 8 9 10 12 11 9 7 6 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 22. 28. 31. 33. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 4. 6. 6. 9. 13. 16. 29. 32. 32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 12. 15. 23. 31. 39. 47. 50. 63. 67. 66. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 16. 20. 29. 37. 44. 50. 52. 65. 69. 69. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP912008 INVEST 09/29/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 88.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 53% is 4.2 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912008 INVEST 09/29/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY