* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952008 09/29/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 57 60 64 66 65 63 69 75 76 68 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 57 60 64 66 65 63 69 75 76 68 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 55 58 61 63 61 57 53 51 51 52 55 SHEAR (KTS) 20 19 21 24 19 9 13 28 44 39 34 30 32 SHEAR DIR 14 351 333 322 322 278 292 309 292 270 292 315 320 SST (C) 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.5 24.8 22.3 19.9 17.2 14.0 15.9 15.5 15.9 15.8 POT. INT. (KT) 114 112 111 109 103 87 78 72 69 73 73 75 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 93 92 90 86 75 69 67 66 69 70 71 71 200 MB T (C) -58.5 -58.3 -58.3 -57.6 -57.1 -56.5 -56.2 -55.5 -54.3 -54.6 -56.0 -56.8 -58.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 46 46 51 54 57 57 44 45 37 32 28 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 25 23 23 23 22 20 18 16 23 31 33 29 850 MB ENV VOR 141 138 131 124 110 96 99 77 68 77 72 55 70 200 MB DIV -12 -2 12 16 38 22 -13 -17 8 7 -16 -22 -27 LAND (KM) 1190 1108 1027 929 832 660 532 459 542 843 1314 1263 808 LAT (DEG N) 37.0 37.6 38.1 39.0 39.8 41.5 43.0 44.6 46.6 48.6 49.6 49.3 48.4 LONG(DEG W) 47.0 47.8 48.5 48.8 49.1 49.1 48.8 48.0 45.8 41.5 35.0 27.7 20.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 10 15 19 23 25 26 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 12. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 22. 25. 27. 30. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -17. -20. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -3. 3. 5. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 18. 19. 17. 14. 19. 26. 26. 20. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 15. 13. 19. 25. 26. 18. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952008 INVEST 09/29/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952008 INVEST 09/29/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED