* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912008 09/29/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 38 46 53 60 69 75 83 89 86 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 38 46 53 60 69 75 83 89 86 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 SHEAR (KTS) 11 11 15 14 12 6 3 9 7 12 7 15 15 SHEAR DIR 70 68 61 74 89 46 209 311 319 309 267 238 256 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 154 154 154 153 151 152 151 150 151 151 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -51.8 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 6 700-500 MB RH 82 83 80 81 79 75 74 68 68 64 63 61 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 11 9 10 10 10 11 16 20 24 29 28 850 MB ENV VOR 30 28 26 11 1 -6 -6 2 15 9 36 61 81 200 MB DIV 100 93 103 96 93 95 94 118 56 52 66 92 26 LAND (KM) 504 536 533 509 496 452 432 398 315 253 206 160 174 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.2 11.4 12.2 13.2 14.4 15.6 16.7 17.6 18.8 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 94.7 95.4 96.0 96.8 97.6 99.5 101.4 103.2 104.4 105.1 105.7 106.4 107.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 9 8 6 6 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 22. 28. 31. 33. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 11. 16. 24. 30. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 27. 35. 45. 49. 58. 63. 59. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 7. 9. 13. 21. 28. 35. 44. 50. 58. 64. 61. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP912008 INVEST 09/29/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 88.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912008 INVEST 09/29/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY