* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * LAURA AL122008 09/29/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 54 56 58 60 60 66 72 79 82 77 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 54 56 58 60 60 66 72 79 82 77 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 53 55 56 57 55 54 54 55 59 63 66 SHEAR (KTS) 25 25 31 23 12 6 17 28 24 47 50 50 38 SHEAR DIR 354 333 325 319 288 265 270 273 252 246 249 254 254 SST (C) 25.7 25.3 25.0 24.3 23.0 20.0 15.1 12.3 10.5 8.9 10.1 11.8 13.7 POT. INT. (KT) 110 106 105 100 92 80 71 70 69 67 67 68 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 91 89 88 85 79 72 68 67 67 66 65 66 68 200 MB T (C) -57.9 -58.2 -57.8 -57.4 -56.6 -56.1 -56.8 -56.8 -58.6 -59.8 -59.4 -58.0 -57.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 46 48 52 52 58 61 67 75 73 63 50 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 25 24 24 23 22 21 18 18 19 22 25 23 850 MB ENV VOR 140 135 119 104 89 97 94 82 133 110 115 154 246 200 MB DIV 6 9 4 44 45 11 11 23 46 18 -16 -15 -17 LAND (KM) 1159 1074 988 879 770 615 492 579 912 1247 1390 1002 555 LAT (DEG N) 37.1 37.8 38.5 39.5 40.5 42.4 45.2 48.9 53.4 56.6 58.3 57.8 55.5 LONG(DEG W) 47.6 48.0 48.4 48.6 48.8 48.2 47.1 45.1 42.1 37.3 31.0 24.5 18.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 12 17 22 22 20 17 19 21 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -11. -15. -17. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 17. 18. 18. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 16. 19. 24. 30. 36. 39. 42. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -5. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 17. 22. 30. 32. 29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 16. 22. 29. 32. 27. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122008 LAURA 09/29/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122008 LAURA 09/29/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY