* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912008 09/29/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 50 53 54 55 55 56 56 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 50 53 54 55 55 56 56 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 25 25 27 29 31 32 33 34 SHEAR (KTS) 13 16 18 12 9 4 3 12 17 16 25 14 25 SHEAR DIR 70 68 78 104 89 99 297 292 306 281 243 242 205 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 148 148 147 148 148 150 150 149 149 150 149 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -53.3 -52.1 -52.8 -51.9 -52.5 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 4 9 6 10 7 10 7 700-500 MB RH 83 81 82 79 77 72 70 68 66 65 63 60 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 11 9 9 9 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 28 12 1 -8 -7 -8 3 6 29 47 81 84 200 MB DIV 76 82 88 86 88 95 133 83 65 79 102 68 60 LAND (KM) 471 506 489 463 447 427 424 385 341 307 265 224 255 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.6 13.5 14.6 15.5 16.4 17.2 18.2 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 94.6 95.4 96.1 97.0 97.9 99.9 101.9 103.5 104.7 105.5 106.1 106.7 107.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 9 10 11 10 8 7 5 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 31. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 17. 24. 29. 30. 30. 29. 29. 29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 25. 28. 29. 30. 30. 31. 31. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP912008 INVEST 09/29/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 87.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912008 INVEST 09/29/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED