* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * LAURA AL122008 09/29/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 56 57 60 62 66 71 74 78 83 80 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 56 57 60 62 66 71 74 78 83 80 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 53 54 56 56 55 54 54 56 61 66 69 SHEAR (KTS) 26 25 20 11 12 9 12 7 12 23 34 41 36 SHEAR DIR 334 328 317 298 265 233 276 267 256 273 260 246 234 SST (C) 25.4 25.0 24.7 23.7 22.3 19.4 13.8 13.6 10.5 10.3 11.8 13.6 14.4 POT. INT. (KT) 107 104 102 96 88 79 70 70 68 67 69 71 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 88 86 85 82 77 71 67 68 66 66 67 68 69 200 MB T (C) -58.5 -58.0 -57.8 -57.4 -57.0 -56.6 -56.7 -57.4 -59.9 -61.2 -60.7 -59.5 -58.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 49 54 55 56 59 59 68 74 70 67 64 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 23 24 22 22 21 20 22 21 18 17 20 16 850 MB ENV VOR 113 106 103 95 89 79 80 95 90 116 142 215 303 200 MB DIV 7 17 38 33 27 16 21 26 45 21 35 13 45 LAND (KM) 1067 995 923 832 745 599 545 718 1073 1440 1101 616 134 LAT (DEG N) 37.8 38.5 39.1 40.1 41.0 43.2 46.3 49.9 53.4 55.4 55.8 55.5 55.0 LONG(DEG W) 48.2 48.4 48.5 48.4 48.2 47.3 45.9 43.3 39.5 34.0 26.9 19.2 11.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 10 10 14 18 21 19 19 21 22 24 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -21. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 14. 16. 19. 20. 19. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 16. 20. 25. 32. 38. 42. 45. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -15. -19. -21. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -4. -6. -7. -4. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 11. 13. 18. 22. 26. 30. 35. 32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 12. 16. 21. 24. 28. 33. 30. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122008 LAURA 09/29/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122008 LAURA 09/29/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY