* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912008 09/29/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 37 48 57 67 77 83 92 95 90 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 37 48 57 67 77 83 92 95 90 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 24 25 28 31 35 39 43 47 SHEAR (KTS) 17 18 11 9 5 2 3 5 5 2 10 5 4 SHEAR DIR 62 85 91 85 63 176 296 272 316 312 115 122 132 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 148 147 148 150 150 149 147 145 144 143 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -51.2 -51.4 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 81 81 79 76 74 74 69 68 67 67 63 57 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 11 14 15 19 24 27 31 34 32 850 MB ENV VOR 31 15 6 0 -3 -2 -3 15 32 61 75 91 81 200 MB DIV 98 109 89 89 103 105 91 74 94 126 111 65 51 LAND (KM) 498 523 514 498 483 477 448 414 404 409 398 381 379 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.4 11.7 12.5 13.7 14.6 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.5 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 95.0 95.9 96.7 97.7 98.7 100.8 102.9 104.4 105.8 107.0 107.7 108.0 108.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 10 11 11 10 8 7 6 4 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 7. 13. 20. 24. 32. 34. 29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 9. 19. 29. 40. 51. 57. 66. 68. 63. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 12. 23. 32. 42. 52. 58. 67. 70. 65. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP912008 INVEST 09/29/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 86.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912008 INVEST 09/29/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY